The Rockets’ Season Shift Is Real, and the Last Eight Games Explain Why

The Houston Rockets’ 110–105 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves felt encouraging on the surface. It was a road win. It was closed cleanly at the free-throw line. The defense held Minnesota to a 107.1 defensive rating. Yet it also felt familiar in a way that mattered more than the result.

As discussed on Harrison Talks Pod, this was a win that explained both versions of the Rockets at once. It did not erase the recent slump. It confirmed why the early-season start felt sustainable and why the downturn now makes sense. The game itself was not the story. It was the entry point.

A Close Win That Reflects the Season’s Direction

The Timberwolves game stayed tight deep into the fourth quarter. Minnesota cut the lead to 105–102 late, and Houston never created true separation. What decided the outcome was late-game execution and composure rather than control.

That matters because it mirrors the broader shift in Houston’s season. Early wins came with momentum and surprise. Recent wins require structure, patience, and veteran control. The Rockets are transitioning from a team that overwhelmed opponents early to one that survives possession by possession.

The Big Picture Split: First 31 Games vs the Last Eight

Through the first 31 games, Houston looked like one of the league’s most stable teams. They posted a 24–15 record with a +6.4 net rating and a 119.0 offensive rating. Scoring pressure was constant. Even losses came with offensive force.

Over the last eight games, the profile has changed. Houston is 3–5 with a -4.0 net rating and a 108.1 offensive rating. This is not a system collapse. It is offensive margin disappearing. The structure remains. The outcomes do not.

Offensive Pressure Has Faded Without Replacement

Early in the season, Houston scored 120 or more points in 15 of its first 31 games. Their offensive rating topped 120 in 18 contests. The offense bent defenses every night, regardless of result.

In the last eight games, Houston has scored 110 or fewer points six times. Only one game cleared 120. The offense no longer dictates pace or scoreboard terms. It reacts to them. That shift alone explains much of the recent record.

Shooting Decline Reflects Results, Not Ideas

The Rockets’ shooting profile has not changed meaningfully. Their outcomes have. Across the season, Houston shot 47.8 percent from the field, 37.0 percent from three, and posted a 54.0 effective field goal percentage. Over the last eight games, those numbers fell to 41.6 percent overall, 26.5 percent from three, and a 46.3 effective field goal percentage.

The offense did not abandon its principles. It stopped being rewarded for them. When shots fail to fall, spacing collapses and every downstream action becomes harder.

Ball Movement Survives, Advantage Creation Does Not

Houston continues to move the ball. Their assist percentage only dropped from 57.1 on the season to 54.0 recently. The issue is timing. Passes arrive after defenses are set rather than during rotation. The ball still moves. The defense no longer has to.

Defense Still Works, Just Without Cushion

Defensively, Houston has been steady. Their season defensive rating sits at 112.6. Over the last eight games, it is 112.1. Opponent effective field goal percentage has remained nearly identical.

What changed is what follows stops. Early in the season, defense fueled offense. Recently, stops lead back into half-court possessions where margins stay thin. The Minnesota game captured this perfectly. The defense was strong. The separation never arrived.

Rebounding Remains a Strength Without Payoff

Houston continues to win the possession battle. Rebounds increased from 49.2 per game on the season to 51.4 over the last eight games. Offensive rebounding has climbed. Second-chance points have not. Extra possessions still exist. Extra points do not.

Kevin Durant Has Become the Stabilizing Force

Over the full season, Kevin Durant has averaged 26.3 points per game with elite efficiency and a +8.5 net rating. Over the last eight games, his scoring climbed to 29.5 points per game while his net rating dropped to +1.8.

Durant is absorbing responsibility rather than spreading it. He is solving problems possession by possession rather than preventing them earlier in the clock. As noted on Harrison Talks Pod, Kevin Durant is not just closing games. He is holding the structure together.

Alperen Şengün Defines the Ceiling

Alperen Şengün remains the offensive engine. On the season, he averages 21.6 points and 6.4 assists with a +7.1 net rating as Houston’s interior hub.

Over the last eight games, his scoring and efficiency dipped, and his net rating fell to -7.5. His foul-out against Minnesota flattened Houston’s advantage creation late. Şengün defines the team’s ceiling. When he is removed, volatility takes over.

Amen Thompson Anchors the Identity

Amen Thompson remains the defensive tone-setter. His season net rating of +8.2 reflects that impact. Recently, his usage increased while his net rating dipped, yet he remains one of Houston’s most stable contributors.

Defense is still the backbone. It stretches thin when the offense stalls. Amen Thompson sets the tone, but he cannot be everywhere.

Reed Sheppard and the Importance of Spacing

Reed Sheppard represents Houston’s spacing variable. On the season, he shoots 40.9 percent from three with a strong net rating. Over the last eight games, his efficiency dipped and his net rating fell sharply.

Against Minnesota, his minutes mattered more than his points. The floor opened. Lanes cleared. Houston’s offense scales better with shooting on the floor. Lineups without gravity tighten quickly.

Youth Tax Shows Up in Discipline

Houston’s young core thrives when the game flows. Over the last eight games, pressure has exposed discipline gaps. Late fouling, missed rotations, and possessions abandoned early have kept games close. This is collective steadiness under pressure, not effort. Young teams do not quit. They drift.

Clutch Numbers Confirm the Problem

For the season, Houston sits at 9–12 in clutch games with a -9.2 net rating. Over the last eight games, they went 3–4 in clutch situations. The issue is not panic. Too many games reach the clutch without offensive separation built earlier.

Exposure, Not Collapse

The league has adjusted. Surprise is gone. Execution is now required. What has held is meaningful. Defense remains solid. Rebounding still travels. The system functions. What tightened is shot quality and late-game organization. The Rockets are not falling apart. They are being asked harder questions.

Final Takeaway

Houston has not lost its identity. It has lost efficiency and separation. Defense and rebounding still provide a baseline. Without cleaner offense or a stabilizing organizer, margins stay thin.

As covered on Harrison Talks Pod, the Rockets did not lose their talent. They lost the space that lets that talent breathe.