Why the Memphis Grizzlies Are Better Than Their Record (And Why That Creates a Bigger Problem)

The Grizzlies are not fixed. They are not contenders. But they are also no longer broken. And that middle ground might be the most dangerous place to live in the West.

Why Memphis Has Been Genuinely Surprising

Memphis is 7–3 over their last 10 games, and that alone would normally trigger skepticism. Hot shooting stretches happen. Soft schedules exist. But this run does not fall into that category.

They have avoided back to back losses entirely during this stretch. They have won multiple games after poor shooting nights. They have improved significantly on the road, going 4–1 with a plus 2.7 Net Rating away from home.

Most importantly, this run includes competitive wins and clutch finishes, not blowouts against bad teams. The offense has functioned even when conditions were not perfect, which is something bad teams simply do not do consistently.

The clearest signal is the Net Rating swing. Memphis has moved from minus 2.0 earlier in the season to plus 7.1 during this stretch. That is not noise.

Metrics now align far more closely with a play in or fringe playoff team than with a bottom five roster. The record is lagging behind the performance, not the other way around. Bad teams do not accidentally do this for two weeks.

Ja Morant’s Return Game Actually Strengthened the Take

Ja Morant’s return against Utah told a much more interesting story than the box score suggests. He finished with 21 points and 10 assists but shot just 35 percent from the field. His usage was still extremely high, and while he looked like Ja, he did not look like peak Ja yet. That distinction matters. This was a functional Ja game, not a takeover game.

The offense itself did not suddenly change with him back. Ball movement stayed clean with 32 assists. There were fewer panic possessions. Memphis shot 46.3 percent from three and won the math game through assists, turnovers, and spacing. Ja did not fix anything structurally. He fit into what was already working.

Late game issues in that loss were not about Ja at all. Memphis lost the rebounding battle, lacked rim deterrence, and had no late game defensive stopper. Keyonte George walked into a pull up jumper, and Nurkić dominated the glass.

That is a Zach Edey problem, not a Ja Morant problem. Without Edey, screens were weaker, the paint collapsed faster, and Ja was forced into harder creation with less downhill space. Ja’s skillset is maximized by structure, not chaos.

What this game quietly proved is that Memphis can function with Ja back, can function without Ja, and struggles most when structure disappears. That distinction matters for long term decisions.

What Actually Changed and Why It Is Repeatable

This has not been an offensive explosion. It has been an offensive correction. Scoring is up 4.4 points per game. Field goal percentage is up 3.3 percent. Effective field goal percentage is up 3.3. True shooting is up 2.4.

More importantly, ball movement has remained elite. Memphis is sitting around a 70 percent assist rate, which is top three in the NBA. This is not about pace or hot shooting. It is about better finishing and smarter shot selection.

The offensive identity has stabilized around inside out basketball. Paint touches remain high, around 54 points in the paint per game. Threes now come off advantage rather than desperation. Late clock bailout offense has dropped noticeably. This feels like system correction, not variance.

The Defensive and Physical Identity Is Back

Defensively, Memphis looks like Memphis again, at least in wins. The Defensive Rating has improved from 113.8 to 110.1 overall. In wins, it drops to an elite 103.3. In losses, it still spikes above 126, which explains the volatility in their record.

The rebounding surge is impossible to ignore. Memphis is averaging 49.6 rebounds over the last 10 games. Offensive rebound rate is up to 33.7 percent. They have multiple 50 plus rebound games, including dominant performances on the road where they are grabbing 53 boards per game. This is classic Memphis basketball. Win ugly. Survive chaos. Control possessions.

Why Memphis Is Too Good to Tank Even Without Ja

This team is winning without elite shooting nights. They are winning on the road. They are winning with distributed scoring, with seven players averaging 12 or more points per game during this stretch. Lineups make sense now. Aldama is functioning as a hub. Spencer and Wells have seen efficiency spikes. Coward has filled the glue role that keeps lineups stable.

Even without Ja, ball movement holds. Possession control holds. Defensive effort holds in wins. This roster is competent enough to accidentally win 38 to 42 games, which is the exact danger zone for the West.

Zach Edey Changed the Entire Equation

Zach Edey’s emergence is not just a nice rookie story. It is the structural shift. From year one to year two, his usage jumped from 16.4 percent to 20.2 percent. His scoring rose from 9.2 points per game to 13.6. His true shooting improved from .624 to .669.

Rebounding became game warping. His total rebound percentage climbed to 23 percent. He is pulling down around four offensive boards per game. Defensively, his block rate improved, and fewer late rotations were required behind him. That freed Jaren Jackson Jr. to roam rather than constantly plug holes. Rookie Edey helped. Year two Edey organized possessions.

Why Losing Edey Hurts More Than Losing Ja in the Short Term

Ja provides creation, pressure, and chaos. Edey provides structure, margin for error, and possession control. Without Edey, screens weaken, rebounding collapses, and late game defense erodes. The Utah game confirmed all of this. Memphis lost the rebounding battle, could not end possessions, and could not get the final stop. Ja fixes chaos. Edey prevents chaos.

Why This Strengthens the Case for Trading Ja

This is the uncomfortable part. Memphis has learned how to function without heliocentric offense. Their best lineups are skill based, movement heavy, and built around multiple decision makers.

Ja’s value is highest when the team looks functional and when his health is intact. That value does not last forever.

The roster direction is physical, rebounding driven, and depth oriented. The timeline points toward Edey, Wells, Spencer, and Aldama. That timeline does not cleanly match Ja’s usage profile, injury risk, and salary slot. Trading Ja is not about quitting. It is about aligning identity and timeline.

Why Memphis Still Might Struggle in the West

The West does not allow half measures. There is no easy playoff path and the play in is a bloodbath. Memphis still lacks a late game defensive stopper. Half court scoring can stall when structure breaks down. Jaren Jackson Jr. remains inconsistent offensively.

They win margins, not blowouts. Without Edey, the margin for error disappears quickly. With Ja, the ceiling rises, but so does variance. They are too good to bottom out, but not clean enough to break through.

Where This Leaves Memphis Right Now

This is not a teardown roster. It is not a contender roster either. It is a roster worth reshaping.

The front office choice is clear. Either add around Ja and accept the ceiling, or re center the timeline around Edey and depth while Ja’s value is still high. Standing still is the worst option.

Closing Thought

Memphis finally looks like itself again. That clarity makes the long term questions unavoidable. Being pretty good in the West is dangerous. This team is telling you what it wants to be. Now the front office has to decide if it is listening.

For more breakdowns like this, check out the full discussion on the recent episode of Harrison Talks Pod, where we dig even deeper into the numbers, the context, and what comes next.

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