The Oklahoma City Thunder Might Accidentally Be a 70 Win Team

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The Oklahoma City Thunder are not just ahead of schedule. They are on a completely different timeline. After starting the season 19–1 and going a perfect 4–0 in NBA Cup group play, they are posting a historic +15.7 net rating. The wildest part is that this team has not even had a fully healthy rotation.

On a recent episode of Harrison Talks Pod, I broke down why OKC looks like a franchise that could stumble into a 70 win season without even trying. Below is the full breakdown, expanded into a blog format for readers who want the numbers, context, and playoff level implications.

Jalen Williams Just Returned… and They Are Still 19–1

This is the part that makes everything feel unreal.

Jalen Williams missed weeks of basketball. He is arguably the second best player on the roster. Most teams would nose dive without a core creator and defender. OKC did the opposite.

While he was out the Thunder:

  • Went 13–1 in November

  • Logged a +18.6 monthly net rating

  • Stayed top 3 in both offense and defense

  • Outscored teams by +31.5 points per game on the road in NBA Cup action

Most teams lose a foundational player and skid. Oklahoma City lost J-Dub and somehow upgraded.

Top 5 in Offense and Top 5 in Defense at the Same Time

Only the greatest teams in NBA history have pulled this off.

  • Offensive Rating: 119.1

  • Defensive Rating: 103.4

  • Net Rating: +15.7

For context:

  • 2017 Warriors: +11.3

  • 1996 Bulls: +13.7

  • 2008 Celtics: +11.0

None of these legendary teams were above +15 through 20 games.

There is also a historic pattern worth noting. No team with a +15 net rating through 20 games has ever finished with fewer than 67 wins. This is not normal early season noise. This is the profile of a giant.

NBA Cup Pressure Exposed Strength, Not Weakness

Playoff style basketball usually tightens teams. OKC used it to get sharper.

Cup vs regular season:

  • Net Rating: 15.7 to 17.6

  • Offensive Rating: 119.1 to 123.4

  • eFG Percentage: 56.4 percent to 61.3 percent

  • Turnover Rate: 12.4 percent to 10.6 percent

The Lakers used the Cup to wake up. The Thunder used it to level up.

Road Dominance That Looks Championship Level

Young teams rarely dominate on the road. OKC is doing it weekly.

  • Road record: 9–1

  • Road point differential in Cup games: +31.5 per game

  • Road Offensive Rating in Cup games: 132.1

A 132 offensive rating on the road is territory usually exclusive to the peak Warriors death lineup. If you dominate away from home like this, you are not ahead of schedule. You are a contender.

They Can Win Any Style of Game

The versatility is what makes OKC terrifying.

  • Slow pace: +17 net rating

  • Fast pace: +18 to +20 net rating

  • Zero days rest: +11 net rating

  • One day rest: +17.3 net rating

  • Two days rest: +18.0 net rating

They win with:

  • Number one defense

  • Turnover creation

  • Efficient shot profiles

  • Rim pressure

  • Composed playmaking with a 2.05 assist to turnover ratio

This is sustainable basketball. This is not hot shooting. This is not luck. This is identity.

Playoff Level Role Players in November

This is where the dynasty talk starts. Their role players are performing like veterans in high leverage moments.

  • Cason Wallace: 80 percent eFG in Cup games, 53 percent from three

  • Isaiah Joe: 50 percent from three, 74.8 percent TS

  • Isaiah Hartenstein: 78 percent FG, +22.6 Net Rating, 10.7 rebounds

  • Jaylin Williams: 50 percent from three, +21 Net Rating

  • Ajay Mitchell: 57 percent from three, team best +35.5 Net Rating

Most young teams need stars to spike. Oklahoma City wins because their sixth through tenth men sharpen under pressure.

The Accidental 70 Win Argument

Here is the math that shocks people.

At 19–1, they are winning 95 percent of their games. Over an 82 game season, that is a 78–4 pace. Obviously that will not hold. But even with regression:

  • 70 percent win rate the rest of the season: finish 76–6

  • 65 percent win rate the rest of the season: finish 72–10

The truth is simple. A +15 net rating does not chase 70 wins. Seventy wins chase it.

Final Thought: A Future Dynasty Rising

The Lakers have shown how veteran teams use the NBA Cup to lock in. The Thunder have shown how a rising dynasty uses it to reveal itself.

They did not tighten up. They got better. They are 19–1 without Jalen Williams. And when April arrives, we might be looking back at this stretch and saying something that felt impossible in October. The 70 win conversation was real.

If you want even deeper analysis, advanced stats, and full Cup breakdowns, check out the full episode of Harrison Talks Pod where this segment originated. New episodes drop every week covering the NBA, narratives, and data driven breakdowns.

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