Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nikola Jokić: Who Has the Edge in the MVP Race?

This post comes from a recent segment on Harrison Talks Pod, where I broke down the heated MVP race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić. After back-to-back matchups between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Denver Nuggets—each winning one—it’s time to reassess where both stars stand.

Jokić, a three-time MVP, remains a statistical anomaly, but Gilgeous-Alexander is making a serious case as the best guard in the league on the best team in the West. Who has the edge in the MVP conversation with both players leading top Western Conference teams? Let’s dive in.

Thunder Take Game 1: Shai’s MVP Moment?

In the first game of this two-game series, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander put on a show. He dropped 40 points, handed out eight assists, and shot a perfect 8-for-8 from the free-throw line. This marked his third consecutive 40+ point game and his 11th of the season, highlighting just how dominant he’s been offensively.

Jalen Williams also stepped up, contributing 26 points, nine rebounds, and eight assists, proving that OKC’s young core is a legitimate threat. Defensively, the Thunder made life difficult for Denver, holding them to just 30% shooting from three. Even Jokić, though still productive, had a relatively inefficient night, finishing with 24 points, 13 rebounds, and nine assists on 43.5% shooting. It's hard to ask for more against the three-time MVP who might be playing the best ball of his career.

This game showcased the Thunder’s defensive intensity and ability to contain one of the league’s best offenses. However, as expected, the Nuggets responded.

Denver Responds: Jokić’s Dominance in Game 2

In the rematch, Nikola Jokić reminded everyone why he’s still a top MVP candidate. He delivered 35 points, 18 rebounds, and eight assists while shooting an absurd 75% from the field. His ability to control the pace and create opportunities for his teammates was on full display, especially in the third quarter when the Nuggets erupted for 47 points.

Jamal Murray also had a huge night, scoring 34 points and knocking down all nine of his free throws. Denver’s offensive efficiency was off the charts, shooting 60.5% overall and 56.3% from deep. Meanwhile, Chet Holmgren had a rough outing, finishing with just eight points and struggling from beyond the arc.

This game highlighted Denver’s ability to flip the switch when their stars are clicking. While OKC’s defense was a major factor in Game 1, the Nuggets' offensive firepower proved too much to handle in Game 2.

The MVP Debate: Shai vs. Jokić

With each player winning a game in this series, the MVP debate remains wide open.

The Case for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai is one of the league’s most elite scorers, thriving in isolation and transition. His mid-range efficiency—shooting over 53% from the 15-18 foot range—is reminiscent of prime Kobe Bryant.

Beyond the stats, Shai’s leadership has propelled OKC into the upper echelon of the Western Conference. The Thunder rarely lose back-to-back games, and his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 31.1 puts him in historic company alongside legends like Michael Jordan and Stephen Curry.

Most importantly, he’s a closer. While Jokić is a phenomenal playmaker, Shai takes over in crunch time, making him a nightmare for opposing defenses. If the Thunder finish as a top-two seed, his MVP case will be difficult to ignore.

The Case for Nikola Jokić

Jokić’s all-around dominance is undeniable. He’s averaging near triple-double numbers while maintaining elite efficiency, shooting 57.4% from the field. His impact on Denver’s offense is unmatched, as he facilitates nearly every possession while still producing monster scoring performances.

His historic 30-20-20 triple-double against Phoenix earlier in the week is a testament to just how unique his skill set is. Few players in NBA history can match his blend of scoring, rebounding, and passing.

However, his tendency to distribute rather than dominate as a scorer in crunch time may work against him in the MVP race. Voters often favor players who take over games down the stretch, which is where Shai might have an edge.

Who Has the Edge Right Now?

The MVP race remains neck and neck, but right now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might have the slightest advantage. While Jokić’s statistical dominance is impossible to ignore, Shai’s scoring consistency, leadership, and ability to close games could give him the upper hand.

A key factor will be team success. If the Thunder finish ahead of the Nuggets in the standings, it will significantly boost Shai’s MVP case. Historically, MVP winners almost always come from teams with top-two seeds. With OKC currently in that position, his chances look strong.

That said, if Jokić keeps putting up historic stat lines and Denver continues surging, a third MVP could be within reach.

Final Thoughts

The battle between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokić for MVP is one of the most compelling storylines of the season. Their head-to-head matchups only added fuel to the debate, and with the season winding down, every game will matter.

If Shai keeps up his scoring tear and OKC locks up a top seed, he could take home his first MVP award. But if Jokić maintains his dominance and leads Denver to another strong finish, he might secure his third.

One thing is certain—this MVP race is far from over.

This discussion originally aired on Harrison Talks Pod. If you enjoyed this breakdown, check out the full episode for even more in-depth analysis!